Outside The Box

It is a balmy 24 degrees here as Peaches settles in to warm my toes, and hers as well. There is still plenty of snow on the ground, if you can call it “snow.” It looks like snow, but it’s as hard as rock, deceptively beautiful and treacherous, like that girl I dated in college. It’s so slippery that during our morning walk, my foot-warming friend elected to leave the deer in peace as they dined on our surplus of acorns.

Remember a few weeks ago when we agreed to enjoy the unusually warm weather in December rather than joining in the panic over global warming, because cold weather was going to catch up with us regardless? By the time you read this, I think we will have seen some single digits again in the high country, and maybe even more of that snow that everyone couldn’t wait to have, but then couldn’t wait to see melt.

This year there is less sea ice in the Arctic than usual, which is consistent with a 40-year trend. This decline has multiple effects that we don’t fully understand. What we do know is that the ice helps keep the polar vortex confined to the poles. When that vortex weakens, Arctic air flows south, which is what we are experiencing right now. It also changes the course of the jet stream, which can bring cold air and winter storms farther south as well.

Additionally, fresh water from melting ice flowing into the North Atlantic is like water in the gas tank when it comes to ocean currents, particularly the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which includes the Gulf Stream that moderates the climate in northern Europe. When that circulation slows, less warm water is transported north. Colder water in the North Atlantic can lead to disrupted weather patterns and more intense storms.

Earth’s climate seeks a dynamic equilibrium (almost as if it was designed that way). The complexities are hard to grasp, leading to scores of unreliable predictions that fail to manifest, which has increased climate skepticism. Cry “wolf” often enough, and many people will simply stop listening. At the other end of the spectrum are the drama-addicted who hear “wolf” in every utterance.

Add politics to the mix, and you have a recipe for something as unappetizing as it is indigestible. In some ways, politics is like the Philosopher’s Stone of the ancient alchemists, but instead of transmuting common metals into gold and silver, politics transmutes anything it touches into more politics: Science, including medicine, nutrition, economics, and of course, weather, all degrade into political litmus tests.

It’s difficult for a civilization thus encumbered, crowded onto a small planet in dynamic equilibrium, to make sober, well-considered choices for its collective best interests, especially when government, the least efficient, least effective organization with the worst track record, steps in to mandate those decisions.

We’ve had a couple of decades of panic, preaching, and prescribing that seemed to point to a future where only the wealthy could afford freedom of movement, while the rest of us huddled in our tiny homes waiting for the sun to come out and charge up the batteries in our electric two-seaters so we could drive to the co-op and buy our plant-based burgers and bug sausages. The powers-that-were, that still are, though forced to take a step back for the moment, seemed content to crash the economy on their way to gaining the coercive power necessary to save us from ourselves.

Yesterday we had two hamburgers with fries and two iced teas at what used to be, but no longer is, one of our favorite restaurants. The bill was $48 before the tip. If that seems excessive to you, there’s a good chance you’re not lining up to buy a $50,000 electric vehicle or replace your reliable gas stove and water heater with electric alternatives that cost twice as much as they did five years ago.

It is clear that alternatives are needed, if for no other reason than the fact that fossil fuel is finite. The biggest danger we face is that we’re going to run out before we have scalable alternatives. We’ve seen the failures of the draconian approach where necessity breeds invention, and we’ve also seen Europe retreat from some of its green initiatives to restart gas generation plants to meet the demand of hot summers and cold winters without Russian gas.

It is the thriving, not the failed economy, which creates breakthroughs and advancements, and like it or not, the world economy is currently, and for the foreseeable future, dependent on fossil fuels. Market forces, not government mandates, create compliance and move initiatives forward.

There is abundant fuel for hope. Compact nuclear reactors can increase the efficiency and resiliency of a more distributed power grid. New battery technologies on the verge of scalability are moving us closer to the goal of affordable electric vehicles. New technology is building houses that are better insulated and cheaper to heat and cool, and perhaps we will learn not to build them on flood plains, fault lines, crumbling coastlines, and areas frequented by wildfire.

In the meantime, enjoy the weather when you are able, and leave the panic for social media and network television. They depend on it to make their living.